Rasmussen Poll: June Arizona Senate Republican Primary

[Arizona Tea Party]

Election 2010: Arizona Republican Primary for Senate

Arizona GOP Primary for Senate:

June: McCain 47%, Hayworth 36%, Deakin 7%, Other 1%, Not Sure 8%

May: McCain 52%, Hayworth 40%, Deakin 0%, Other 2%, Not Sure 6%

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Longtime Senator John McCain continues to lead Arizona’s Republican Primary by double digits but remains in the same narrow range of support he’s drawn since January.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in the state Voters shows McCain picking up 47% support, while challenger J.D.Hayworth earns the vote from 36%. Navy veteran and Tea Party activist Jim
Deakin picks up seven percent (7%) support. One percent (1%) like another
candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

Any incumbent who earns less 50% support is considered potentially vulnerable, and McCain has been hovering around that mark all year. Since January, McCain’s support has fallen in a narrow 47% to 53% range. Hayworth's
support has generally been in the low 40s.

Last month, McCain led Hayworth 52% to 40%.

The 2008 Republican presidential nominee cannot be comforted by the fact that his level of support in early primary polling is similar to the numbers for another veteran senator, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania. Specter, ultimately
defeated in the state's Democratic Primary by Joe Sestak, led in just about all
early polling but could never get much above the 50% level of support.

Hayworth has criticized McCain for being soft on illegal immigration, an issue that resonates with Arizona voters, but McCain has been a strong supporter of the state’s new immigration law despite criticism of it by President Obama
and others.

The survey of 707 Likely Republican Primary Voters in Arizona was conducted on June 16, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of
confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research,
LLC. See methodology.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Arizona’s GOP voters favor the new state law, while only eight percent are opposed to it.


McCain and Hayworth are closely divided among those voters who favor the law, but the incumbent leads by nearly 50 points among those who oppose it.

While McCain is well ahead of his challengers among women GOP voters, he is virtually tied with Hayworth among men.

The two men are also tied among conservative voters.

McCain is viewed Very Favorably by 30% of GOP voters in Arizona and Very Unfavorably by 11%.

Hayworth’s marks are 24% Very Favorable and 24% Very Unfavorable.

For Deakin, Very Favorables are five percent (5%) and Very Unfavorables (5%). But while McCain and Hayworth are well-known to Arizona voters, 46% don't know enough about Deakin to express any kind of opinion about him.

At this point in the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Incumbent Jan Brewer now earns 61% support in Arizona’s Republican Primary race for governor, marking her second big monthly gain in a row.

Ten percent (10%) of Arizona Republicans approve of the job Obama is doing as president, same as last month. Ninety percent (90%) disapprove.

In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and
John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.

In Arizona during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed McCain winning the state by a 51% to 45% margin. He defeated Obama 54% to 45%. In the 2006 Arizona governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Janet Napolitano
defeating Len Munsil 58% to 37%. Napolitano won 63% to 35%. In the 2006 race for
U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Jon Kyl leading Jim Pederson by nine, 51%
to 42%. Kyl won by nine, 53% to 44%.

Rasmussen Reports also has recently surveyed the House races in North Dakota and South Dakota and Senate races in Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Florida, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Ohio, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

Link: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/e...

[Karen Schweiker]

Yes, we're glad to see Mr. Deakin's name in Rasmussen poll. Hopefully it will be a helpful tool for recognition.

As reported from azfamily.com (Debates--McCain, Hayworth, Deakin)

McCain, Hayworth, Deakin to face off in July 16 debate

by Jim Carr

azfamily.com

Posted on June 25, 2010 at 1:17 PM

Updated today at 1:33 PM

PHOENIX -- Senator John McCain, former U.S. Congressman J.D. Hayworth, and conservative hopeful Jim Deakin will face off in the first of two debates on July 16 in Phoenix. The three candidates are vying for the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by McCain.

The debate will take place at KTVK-3TV Studios in Phoenix on Friday, July 16 at 7:00 p.m and will be simulcast on KTTU in Tucson and azfamily.com.

A second debate to be held in Tucson is planned for the following night at KUAT PBS-6.

KTVK-3TV will also host a debate between the four candidates running in Arizona's Democratic primary race for the U.S. Senate. The debate between Democrats will take place on Friday, July 9, at 7:00 p.m. and will also be available online at azfamily.com.

[susan k schneider]

We need someone besides Hayworth to challenge McCain. I do not want Hayworth in there. Just another good ol' boy.

[Paul Fetters]

Hayworth's infomercial screwup has pretty much made HIM the "spoiler".

[Arizona Tea Party]

McCain Is Now Running Just to Stay in Place - http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/22/us/politics/22mccain.html?pagewan...

[Arizona Tea Party]

Don't forget the 8% Not Sure... that # went up from 6

[Paul Fetters]

Keep fighting Jim.
I'm pushing for you in my neighborhood. I've converted at least a dozen.

[Jill Arizona]

Rassmussen says McCain is vulnerable, only 47%, Jim Deakin is the spoiler

http://tinyurl.com/2bknfb2

___________________________________________________________________________________________
McCAIN'S MILLIONS ON ADS MISFIRING

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

TUESDAY, JUNE 22

NEWS RELEASE



McCAIN'S MILLIONS ON ADS MISFIRING
Poll shows he faces the "Specter" of defeat



Phoenix, AZ (June 22) - Although Sen. John McCain has now spent more than $3 million on misleading, negative attack ads, his popularity is on the decline according to a new Rasmussen Reports released today.

U.S. Senate Candidate J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ) today said he is pleased that he is within striking distance of Sen. John McCain.

"Sen. McCain finds his popularity in decline. He actually dropped in the poll from last month to today," Hayworth said. "Rasmussen compared Sen. McCain's standing today to that of Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania who lost this year after he led in just about all early polling. The Specter factor seems to be at play in this race."

Today Rasmussen Reports had the race at 47 percent McCain and 36 percent Hayworth. Protest candidate Jim Deakin has 7 percent. The remaining voters were for other or were undecided.

"This is clearly a two-person race," Hayworth said. "Despite a massive, negative, misleading campaign by Sen. McCain, voters still recognize that he has been there too long and does not represent our values."

Rasmussen noted that any incumbent who earns less that 50 percent support is considered potentially vulnerable and McCain has been hovering around that mark all year.

Hayworth noted the trend has not been good for McCain. The incumbent's ratings have ranged from 53 percent in January to 47 percent in this latest survey.

The survey of 707 likely Republican Primary voters was conducted June 16 and has a 4 percentage point margin of error.

"I think this anti-Washington Establishment feeling is alive and well," Hayworth said. "Voters are sick and tired of the same old tired, negative campaign tactics and they are turning on Sen. McCain."



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